<br /><div id="bodyContent" style="background-color: #ffffff; width: 960px; padding-left: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px; margin: 0px auto; font-family: Simsun; font-size: medium;"><div style="width: 720px; float: left;"><div id="artHead" style="position: relative; float: left; height: 390px; width: 700px; margin-bottom: 30px;"><div style="position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 0px; z-index: 10; width: 700px; height: 390px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden;"><a href="http://www.dw.de/%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E4%BB%A3%E7%9B%98%E6%95%B4%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%80/a-16697759#" rel="nofollow" style="text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer;"><img width="700" height="394" border="0" src="http://www.dw.de/image/0,,16663019_303,00.jpg" alt="Xi Jinping (front), general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and Li Keqiang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier, arrive at the third plenary meeting of the first session of the 12th National People\’s Congress (NPC) held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing March 10, 2013. Picture taken March 10, 2013. REUTERS/China Daily (CHINA – Tags: POLITICS) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA" style="border-style: none; min-width: 700px;" /></a></div></div><div style="margin-bottom: 30px;"><p style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 19px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">两会结束后，中国第五代领导人正式全面接掌权力。历史学者章立凡撰文分析：新一代领导人是否依然笼罩在“老人干政”的阴影之下？红色江山是否“代有人传”？</span></p><div style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; color: #3e3e3e;"><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 19px; color: #000000;">（德国之声中文网）</strong>从去冬十八大到今春两会落幕，中共高层完成了代际党政权力交接。本次换届的亮点有三：</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">一、习近平、李克强等有法学、经济学专业背景的新领导人接班，结束了以江朱、胡温为代表的"工程师治国"时代；</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">二、胡锦涛以自己的"裸退"为代价，结束了自邓小平时代以来困扰中国政局的退休老人干政传统，这是他对执政党最大的历史贡献，其意义超过了"科学发展观"；</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">三、形成了以"红二代"为主导的第五代领导层，政治资本比上一代充裕，显得自信满满，执政风格相对强势。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both;"><a href="http://www.dw.de/%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E4%BB%A3%E7%9B%98%E6%95%B4%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%80/a-16697759#" rel="nofollow" style="text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer;"><img width="700" height="394" border="0" src="http://www.dw.de/image/0,,16381147_401,00.jpg" alt="China\’s new Politburo Standing Committee members (from L to R) Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli arrive to meet the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, in this November 15, 2012 photo released by Chinese official Xinhua News Agency. REUTERS/Xinhua/Ding Lin (CHINA – Tags: POLITICS) NO SALES. NO ARCHIVES. FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA. YES" style="border-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px;" /></a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; color: #888888;">老龄班底？</span></div><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 19px; color: #000000;">老龄班底，过渡政权？</strong></p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">从体制的传统来看，退休老人干政的惯性能否彻底退潮，依旧存疑。本届高层人事仍带有"老龄化"特征：政治局常委平均年龄63.4岁，政治局委员平均年龄61.9岁，政协主席、副主席平均年龄64.2岁，人大委员长、副委员长平均年龄62.7岁，国务院总理、副总理和国务委员平均年龄61.4岁，国务院秘书长及各部门负责人平均年龄60岁。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">反观1949年建政时的党和国家领导人名单，中共任政治局委员和副总理以上职务者共计15人，平均年龄51.6岁；加上5位年龄较大的党外人士，平均年龄也只有54.9岁。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">本届政治局常委7人中，有两位系上届常委；未来5年任期届满时，将有5人退休。本届国务院总理、副总理和国务委员10人中，有7人系上届阁员，国务院25个部门中，16名部长获连任，9位部长为新人。5年内至少将有两位副总理和5位部长因年龄原因退休。本届中央委员会平均年龄为56.1岁，预计到下届接班时，平均年龄也将超过60岁。以此班底产生的下届党和国家领导人，平均年龄也未必比本届低多少。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">尽管执政党强调干部的年轻化、知识化和专业化，但中国官场一直是"逆淘汰"机制，喜欢独立思考的年轻精英，往往被排除在体制之外，造成干部队伍的素质劣化和老龄化。现在开始管理中国的，仍是一个平均年龄在60岁以上的过渡政权。其中一些人口碑很差，即便是在人大的等额选举中，也收到很多反对票，其留任和转任显示，任人唯亲、政怠宦成的体制惯性仍无变化。</p><div style="margin: 0px; padding: 7px 20px 10px 0px; float: none; width: 700px; clear: both;"><a href="http://www.dw.de/%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%94%E4%BB%A3%E7%9B%98%E6%95%B4%E8%BF%98%E6%98%AF%E7%A0%B4%E5%B1%80/a-16697759#" rel="nofollow" style="text-decoration: none; cursor: pointer;"><img width="700" height="394" border="0" src="http://www.dw.de/image/0,,16696907_401,00.jpg" alt="China\’s President Xi Jinping (front L) and First Lady Peng Liyuan take part in a welcoming ceremony upon their arrival at Julius Nyerere International Airport with his Tanzanian counterpart Jakaya Kikwete (front 2nd L) and First Lady Salma Kikwete (front R) in Dar es Salaam, March 24, 2013. Xi faces growing calls from policymakers and economists in Africa for a more balanced trade relationship between the continent and China as he arrives in Tanzania at the beginning of an African tour on Sunday. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya (TANZANIA – Tags: BUSINESS POLITICS)" style="border-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 700px;" /></a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; color: #888888;">习近平之后，“红三代”能否上位？</span></div><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;"><strong style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 19px; color: #000000;">红色二代，后继无人？</strong></p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">中共的高级干部主要有三个来源：共青团、高干子女、地方系（如上海帮），但其中亦不乏交叉，如多数红二代和地方干部，都经历过团组织的培养（习近平未入团，是非常历史时期的特例）。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">从大历史的角度看，团派相当于科举入仕，出身草根而人多势众。红二代相当于门阀世家，人丁不旺但政治资本雄厚。至于地方系，历史上虽不乏地方首脑上调中央的范例（如1952年地方书记高岗、饶漱石、邓子恢、邓小平、习仲勋入掌中枢，史称"五马进京"），但形成派系则带有偶然性，如"文革"中和"六四"后两次出现"上海帮"，均有特殊历史背景。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">从十八大的人事布局来看，尽管入常临门生变，团派在中央委员会和政治局基本盘已经形成，全面接班的态势已定。目前坊间流传着一个猜想下届七常委中的六席名单，团派占有五席。上海帮后继乏人，已成强弩之末，难以保持队形。太子党人数上不占优势，其中多人及其子嗣已定居海外，享受西方富足生活，无意卷入国内政治。近期频传高层急召海外子女回国的消息，多被解读为廉政反腐举措，窃以为或与未来传代布局有关。此前虽有强推李小鹏上位之举，但"红三代"未必能赶得上权力末班车。如果有十九大，必将是团派为主体的执政班底。</p><p style="font-size: 17px; line-height: 25px; font-family: \’MS Song\’, \’MS Hei\’; padding: 0px 40px 12px 0px; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">习李体制目前祭起的仍是群众路线、党指挥枪、统一战线等传统法宝，着力于画大饼，施小惠，以民生换民主，先缓和日益激化的社会矛盾，稳住阵脚再徐图"中兴"。但历史留给"红二代"重振祖业的时间，看来只有五年。五年内若只见盘整不见破局，或将失去最后的历史机会。</p></div></div></div></div>