<figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="中国幼儿" src="http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/114AF/production/_95113807_1cf15fb7-63f4-45cf-aab9-ac4915c5ff68.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EPA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国卫计委官员在人大会议期间表示，和欧美国家相比，中国在未来一百年里不缺乏人口数量和劳动力，目前需要提高生产效率。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 28px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国国家卫生计生委官员在人大会议期间表示，和欧美国家相比，中国在未来一百年里不缺乏人口数量和劳动力，目前需要提高生产效率。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国政府自2016年1月1日"全面二孩"政策放开以来，出生人口激增，“符合预判”。但很多方面专家认为随着老龄化加剧，劳动力人口跟不上经济发展需要。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">不过，中国卫计委官员的这一表态似乎显示，中国未来可能将更重视提高生产率，而非依靠过去多年廉价劳动力的"人口红利"来促进经济增长。</p><figure style="color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6449px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/162CF/production/_95113809_702caf7d-45b8-4379-a979-147f229c06dd.jpg" datasrc="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/162CF/production/_95113809_702caf7d-45b8-4379-a979-147f229c06dd.jpg" alt="中国雾霾" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.207px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; line-height: 1.14286; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: 0.25px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; border: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; line-height: 1.33333; font-family: inherit; border: 0px; color: #ececec; letter-spacing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国人口众多促进经济增长，但低效率能源利用带来严重环境问题。</span></figcaption></figure><h2>与欧美相比</h2><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国卫计委官员们在十二届全国人大五次会议新闻中心举行记者会，在回答"二孩政策"实施情况时谈到未来人口政策展望。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">卫计委副主任王培安说："2015年，按照国际口径15-64岁的中国劳动年龄人口占总人口的73%，数量是10.03亿，到2020年还有9.85亿，到2030年还有9.52亿，到了2050年还有8亿多。"</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">王培安说，中国的劳动年龄人口占总人口的比重高于美国、欧洲和日本，美欧日目前均低于68%，而"欧美发达国家劳动年龄人口总数只有7.3亿，但是它的产出劳动生产率比我们高得多"。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">他表示，随着科技水平发展，今后还有很多替代人口劳动力的措施和办法。</p><h2>全球人口和环境、资源变化</h2><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国几个世纪以来曾是世界人口第一大国。在过去几十年里，人口众多、劳动力廉价既给中国制造业经济迅猛发展提供"人口红利"，但也对中国甚至世界的环境和资源带来巨大压力，中国近年来在迅速上升为世界第二大经济体同时，也因为高耗能、低效率能源的发展成为最大环境污染国。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但中国已经誓言要改变粗放型的经济发展，学习欧美，利用技术提高生产效率。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">近年来，在中国劳动力成本不断上升和老龄化不断加重之际，很多学者争议中国是否应该立即废除计划生育政策。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但随着技术和社会进步，全球人口增长速度不断增快，联合国2015年发布统计报告称，世界人口已经超过73亿，到2030年预计将增加到85亿，到2050年升至97亿，并在2100年达到112亿。</p><p style="font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; font-family: inherit; margin-top: 18px; color: #404040; letter-spacing: inherit; border: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">该报告称，其中超过一半的人口增长将主要集中在非洲地区，同时印度将超过中国成为世界第一人口大国。</p>