<div id="js_content" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden; color: #3e3e3e; min-height: 350px; position: relative; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; background-color: #ffffff;"><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.656" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ3VvmKNoFD8Ov28sjbNP07TaKpVlNh9iaqGkllY6gNn6JfXO5I1ua3dBiby1y3mVLLic8fVzJegSlCEA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ3VvmKNoFD8Ov28sjbNP07TaKpVlNh9iaqGkllY6gNn6JfXO5I1ua3dBiby1y3mVLLic8fVzJegSlCEA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">中美贸易摩擦至今，给人的感觉很怪，你既感觉它们之间似乎从来没打过，又感觉它们之间好像就没停过。双方打打停停，每次到谈判都感觉挺顺利，不料形势又陡然升级。这说明，中美双方始终没有就核心问题达成共识。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">那么，这里的核心问题是什么？可能很多人都理所当然的认为，特朗普商人出生，摆脱不了商人思维，要的自然是那1000亿美金的逆差。起初我也这么认为，但是现在看来，事情远没有这么简单。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">因为如果单纯是为平逆差，他完全没必要寻求谈判去解决，只要单方面调整关税，反馈到市场后，逆差自然会下降。贸易从来都是买方市场，中国再如何调整关税，都决计无还手之力。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">而现在美国又动用了卖方市场优势，拒绝向中兴出售芯片。要知道中国每年向美国买高级芯片花的钱，就高达2000亿美金，特朗普把这部分砍掉，却还谈减少贸易逆差，这岂不是天大的笑话，就跟一边吃一边说要减肥一样。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">而且中兴犯错在2016年，当时奥巴马政府已经网开一面，此时特朗普算旧事从提，显然是为给中方施压，在核心问题上作出让步。事后白宫方面又很巧妙地宣称可以同中方就301调查展开磋商，与此同时，又派中情局局长去朝鲜会见金正恩…</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">这得多虐，显然是在不断施压，逼迫中国政府乖乖就范。而今天中国商务部却明确表示，不会就301征税清单与美方进行任何双边谈判。这是否可以看出，中美双方现在讨论的重点已经不单纯是如何减少逆差的问题了。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.6711111111111111" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ2J5N5sT2z3hQ4fAvyAZwnvRZo7iaaIToI7dRFhmhdk6Tnib1WhuZ03mRn2UlmJ8AVeHib9hPMRsyukw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="450" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ2J5N5sT2z3hQ4fAvyAZwnvRZo7iaaIToI7dRFhmhdk6Tnib1WhuZ03mRn2UlmJ8AVeHib9hPMRsyukw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">那么中美双方政府到底背着人民偷偷在讨论些什么呢？我们是否可以从中国政府最怕什么去思考，这里我先谈一谈另一场双边贸易谈判，也就是中国与加拿大的自由贸易协定。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">自加拿大总理特鲁多上台后，就主张与其他国家签订自由贸易的协定时，添加有关提高“劳工权益”等内容，结果遭到了中方的坚决反对。也正因此，中加自由贸易就一直停留在探索阶段。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">特鲁多是出了名的白左，前几天派飞机去叙利亚接难民，结果把自己都给感动哭了…所以他在贸易中提出加强劳工权益保障等“进步内容”，我认为不是装装样子。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">当然，中国人不相信价值观，认为凡事都必须从利益角度出发，不然打死也不会相信。所以这次我不谈价值观，只谈利益。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">现在我看很多新闻稿，都习惯性写我国如何如何，我们与美国如何如何，其实这种表述很误</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">导人。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">如果把双边贸易简单看成是两个国家之间的事情，那真的太无知无耻了。一个国家是存在两个立场的，即政商与劳工。比如中国与美国的贸易往来，实际上关系到四个立场，即中国政商与美国政商，中国劳工与美国劳工。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">以往中国在对外贸易中，其实最大的优势是“低人权优势”，即劳动成本低，工人上班时间长，干活像牛一样勤恳。所以同样的商品，无论是成本还是效率，中国比老外的优势就明显很多。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">相反，如果中国提高劳动者待遇，减少工人的工作时间，严格控制在每天8小时，那么中国制造的竞争力就会降低许多。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">所以这就让美国政商关心起中国劳工的待遇来，中国工人待遇高了，反而提升了他们自身产品的竞争力。不仅如此，中国劳工的待遇提升后，消费能力增强，更能接纳美国的优质商品，对美国政商来说又是利好。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">事实上，中国即便提升劳动者待遇，像发达国家那样设置最低时薪，其实也不会降低中国制造的竞争力。因为只要政府降低税率，让企业有更多的利润空间，再将这部分利润让渡给劳工，就可以保持用工成本不变。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">比如美国，富士康去投资办厂，美国政府不仅给予免税优惠，甚至还提供现金补贴，让富士康给劳工保障平均五万多美金的年薪，这应该叫高人权优势吧…</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">但中国政府显然办不到，因为光减税就意味着将失去一大波财政收入，体制内那么多人要养，部分人还得养尊处优，少数人还得过神仙般的日子，没钱怎么行呢？所以即便欧美国家如何去要求提高劳动者待遇，中国政府是死活不肯答应的。当然，我也不答应，我相信每一个跟我一样爱国的人，都不会答应。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.666" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ1XOn80CBPTWEiaHu4Alwtk9f3TUImlMBeUhWDsGekGQeKDASQt2PjjwDG7Cf5djicAPlb1tVEiaByBg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/4OZD5rBBKZ1XOn80CBPTWEiaHu4Alwtk9f3TUImlMBeUhWDsGekGQeKDASQt2PjjwDG7Cf5djicAPlb1tVEiaByBg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; height: auto !important; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; width: auto !important; visibility: visible !important;" alt="" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">只是呢，这种低人权对外虽是优势，时间一长，又会对内造成极大的损伤。首先就是贫富悬殊巨大，政商老有钱，而底层的工人一贫如洗，失去消费能力。这就导致内需市场萎靡，国内的企业慢慢就感觉难以生存。再加上房地产经济的兴起，游资热衷投机，迅速推升资产泡沫。地产规模扩大后，又进一步蚕食内需市场，因为房奴太多，连年月供，没多少钱用于消费了。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">据统计局的数据，中国社会消费品零售总额增幅已经出现连续七年下滑，说明内需市场极度萎靡。现在支撑企业的，有很大一部分在于外需市场，所以特朗普投石问路，提出要缩减中美贸易逆差千亿美金，明面上看着是为钱，实际上是为人（人权）。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">因为砍掉一部分外需后，中国政府只能通过平衡财富，提高底层劳动者的收入，去刺激消费扩大内需，才能保持经济活力，不然得崩。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">只是中国政府对进步条款有着天然的抵触，转而去选择了另一条路，那就是开放。而且明确表示不是受制于美国的压力，而是自主选择开放。起初我还以为是嘴硬，现在算是信了，因为中国政府面对经济困境，通常只会用两招，一是印钱，二是开放。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">印钱已经招数使尽了，年均两位数的放水量，在不加息的前提下，居然还出现流动性紧缩，真的不是一般的国家能办到。所以只能选择开放，如果非说与美国有关，那就是贸易战加速了中国对外开放的节奏。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">开放固然是好事，只是当局并没有就核心垄断作出让步，国家资本主义的形态没有丝毫动摇，民企获益有限，顶多只能缓解下本次危机，没有持续性。</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">特朗普显然没有这个耐心，香港那边空头激战正酣呢，朝鲜这根两头草也已收拾妥当，宣布将构建半岛永久和平机制。似乎一切都恰到好处，于是果断一手砍了中兴，一手掐住华为的脖子…</span></p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><p style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; line-height: 2em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; font-size: 18px;">接下来就看中国政府怎么接招了，反正我已经准备好抵制美国货了…</span></p></div>