<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="2019年初的美国，联邦政府继续关门" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/38D7/production/_105215541_hi051692966_1.jpg" width="1024" height="678" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">2019年初的美国，联邦政府继续关门。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">（</em></strong><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">注：本文不代表BBC观点）</em></strong></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2019年初的美国， 联邦政府继续关门，财政赤字持续攀升，股市动荡不安，贸易战严重伤害跨国公司和美国农业，国防部长和国防部幕僚长先后辞职以抗议特朗普从叙利亚撤兵。与此同时，据《华盛顿邮报》2018年12月30日统计，特朗普以平均每天15条的速度生产着谎言，攻击新闻自由，威胁司法公正和美国国家安全。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 23px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">自特朗普2017年初上任后，美国针对少数民族和移民的仇恨犯罪增加两成，碳排放和污染物排放量飙升，八万美国人直接死于泛滥的枪支，四百万成年美国人失去医疗保险，边境上数千中南美的难民儿童与父母被强行分离，两名难民儿童死于边境的拘留所。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">时至2019年，美国民主面对滥权，法治面对腐败，正当程序面对妨害司法，平等保护面对种族主义，美国精神和美国模式民主面临危急存亡之秋。2019年1月3日，美国第116届国会开始工作，民主党元老佩洛西 （Nancy Pelosi）第二次出任众议长。民主党控制的众议院将会在很大程度上制衡白宫，特朗普的公开滥用权力和妨害司法公正的行为将在一定程度上受到遏制。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46846441" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">美国政府关闭：史上最长政府停摆和为生计所困的政府雇员</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46657913" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">一年三次！美国政府部分"停摆"</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-42763370" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">美国联邦政府部分关门会出现什么情况？</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46789735" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">从公园洗手间到中美贸易谈判 美政府停摆恶果开始显现</a></li></ul><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/72A7/production/_105215392_hi050443135.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/72A7/production/_105215392_hi050443135.jpg" alt="民主党元老佩洛西 （Nancy Pelosi）第二次出任美国众议院议长。" width="1024" height="678" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">REUTERS</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">民主党元老佩洛西 （Nancy Pelosi）第二次出任美国众议院议长。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">《纽约时报》2019年1月5日发表社评《人民诉特朗普案》(The People v. Donald J. Trump)， 称 “特朗普以权谋私、违法乱纪、妨害司法、侵犯民权、颠覆民主体制，美国人民必须尽快决定怎样保卫民主。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国模式民主的一些内在机制阴差阳错地造成了特朗普现象， 归纳而言，体现在至少三个主要方面。 首先， 选举方面： 陈旧的选举人团制度造成少数统治多数；州内执政党控制的选区重划 （gerrymandering）造成执政党可以最大程度上压制反对党，确保执政党的长期优势；大量金钱渗入选举活动造成暗箱操作，少数寡头财团可以控制某些候选人；其次，言论自由和新闻自由领域：俄国情报部门制造的假新闻不受任何审查地占据美国社交媒体，以几何速度传播蔓延；新闻媒体报道特朗普的谎言，客观上又为其提供了更广大的平台；第三，司法独立受到限制：美国原有完全独立的司法体系保守谨慎，尊重传统的三权分立原则，一般会假设行政部门的政策和行为合理合法。但一旦出现行政部门恶意立规和恶意执法，司法部门反应滞后，纠错能力受到判例原则（stare decisis）的严重限制。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普现象是对美国模式民主的前所未有的考验。如果在现有的民主法治框架中不能清除特朗普的腐败和滥权，美国整个民主政治体系则需要结构性改革；如果在现有的民主法治框架中可以解决特朗普问题，可证明美国模式的纠错能力符合国父们的设计预期。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特别检察官穆勒（Robert Mueller）、纽约南区联邦检察官、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官、弗吉尼亚东区联邦检察官、纽约州检察总长等平行进行19宗针对特朗普集团及其成员的刑事调查和诉讼；由于案情复杂和涉及嫌犯众多，负责起诉特朗普集团主要犯罪嫌疑人的哥伦比亚特区联邦大陪审团的任期又被延长六个月。</p><h2>中期选举结果：“一党制”的终结</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2018年11月的美国中期选举重新恢复了美国的两党制：民主党重新控制众议院，并选举出了有史以来最年轻的的联邦女众议员、第一位难民议员、第一位公开的同性恋州长；密歇根州将采用选民自动登记系统；共和党在传统上占优势的亚利桑那、佛罗里达和德克萨斯州被民主党强势挑战。这是美国历史上女性议员比例最高的一届国会：女性议员在在参众两院均占1/4左右名额。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中期选举结果：民主党比共和党净多出860万张选票，是1974年以来的最大差值。特别值得注意的是：从1989年到2019年，民主党女性众议员数目从16位增加到89位，共和党女性众议员维持在13位；民主党非裔众议员数目从1位增加到54位，共和党非裔众议员数目维持在1位。选举结果体现了民主党代表美国人口和文化的多元化、意识形态的包容性，和民主选举制度的韧性。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-45755895" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">“干预”美国民主——彭斯对华政策尖锐讲话背后 是“冷战”前奏还是转移视线</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-46029292" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">“民主未死，它只是中年危机了”</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-39073787" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中国的“平川”策略真的会奏效吗？</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-43653008" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">特朗普贸易政策下一步走向何方</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-45080088" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">特朗普的贸易战之下 早期“受害者”浮现</a></li></ul><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/99B7/production/_105215393_hi051557016.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/99B7/production/_105215393_hi051557016.jpg" alt="1995年以难民身份进入美国的伊尔汗·奥马尔（Ilhan Omar）当选为联邦众议员，代表明尼苏达第5选区。" width="6000" height="4000" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">1995年以难民身份进入美国的伊尔汗·奥马尔（Ilhan Omar）当选为联邦众议员，代表明尼苏达第5选区。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">新国会上任后，特别检察官穆勒的调查将受到较少非法干预。民主党将控制众议院所有的委员会，这些委员会可以对白宫和行政部门发出传票，强行传唤政府官员到国会作证，回答国会议员们对过去两年间的一系列政府丑闻的问题：在边境强行拆散难民家庭、内阁成员腐败、特朗普对司法部门的干扰等等。大批白宫高级和中级官员已经开始聘用律师，以面对即将到来的国会传唤。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">新议会还将调查沙特阿拉伯持不同政见记者贾迈勒·卡舒吉（Jamal Khashoggi）被谋杀案和特朗普政府的反常反应；以及多名女性对联邦最高法院大法官卡瓦诺(Brett Kavanaugh)的指控和提名确认过程中出现的问题。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/E7D7/production/_105215395_gettyimages-1077095122_1.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/E7D7/production/_105215395_gettyimages-1077095122_1.jpg" alt="现年29岁的亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez）是美国历史上最年轻的女性众议员，代表纽约第14选区。" width="1024" height="678" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">AFP/GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">现年29岁的亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez）是美国历史上最年轻的女性众议员，代表纽约第14选区。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">两年来，对特朗普政府官员的刑事控罪已经超过100件，创下美国当代历史上之最。在此之前现任政府的刑事控罪记录是尼克松政府的76件，接下来的是里根政府的26件和小布什政府的16件。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">其他政府被刑事控罪的次数是：克林顿政府2件、福特政府1件、卡特政府1件、老布什政府1件、奥巴马政府0件。尽管在法律上特朗普政府腐败和滥权，但共和党控制的国会两院完全放弃立法部门的法定监督权，成为行政部门的附属。这种反常的现象在新的116届美国联邦众议院正式开始工作后被改变。</p><h2>对司法体系的考验</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普案对美国司法体系构成前所未有的挑战。由于国父们确立的三权分立原则，司法部门一般对行政部门给予很大的尊重和信任，谨慎处理任何涉及行政权力、特别是总统权力的案件。但美国历史上首次出现总统公开勾结外国、妨害司法公正、滥用权力，以攻击新闻自由来散布谎言，以攻击联邦法官来削弱司法权威的现象，如何在现有的美国宪法框架下度过危机，维护司法公正和国家安全，同时不触及三权分立的基本原则，是联邦最高法院罗伯茨（John Roberts）首席大法官和所有联邦法官们面对的问题。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/135F7/production/_105215397_gettyimages-74118899_1.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/135F7/production/_105215397_gettyimages-74118899_1.jpg" alt="美国联邦最高法院首席大法官罗伯茨。" width="1024" height="576" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">美国联邦最高法院首席大法官罗伯茨。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">共和党控制的参议院在加速确认特朗普提名的联邦法官，到2019年初，85名联邦终身法官已经被确认，包括2名联邦最高法院大法官、30名联邦上诉法院法官和53名联邦地区法院法官。这其中至少有两人被全美律师协会（American Bar Association）评为“不合格”（unqualified）做法官。当特朗普案到达联邦最高法院的时候，特朗普提名的卡瓦诺和戈萨奇能否以法律为原则断案，还是未知数。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">联邦最高法院有几位资深大法官年事已高，如果其中任何一位在2019年退休，特朗普又可能得到一次提名最高法院大法官的机会，共和党控制的参议院必然附和。美国联邦法律在未来的十到二十年内将可能被全面改写。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2018年11月，罗伯茨首席大法官罕见地回应了特朗普对联邦法院的攻击，尽管联邦最高法院大法官一般从不对行政部门的批评表态。在特朗普攻击联邦第九巡回上诉区的法官们是 "奥巴马法官" 之后，首席大法官指出： “美国没有奥巴马法官或者特朗普法官，也没有布什法官或者克林顿法官。美国只有依法办案的法官。美国人应以司法独立为幸。”</p><h2>特朗普的反应和可能采取的措施</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普的政治导师是麦卡锡（Joseph McCarthy）的主要助手罗伊·科恩（Roy Cohn）。麦卡锡和罗伊·科恩在1950年代以“抓共产党”为名迫害了数以百计的知识分子和美国政府官员。科恩因违法行为被罢黜律师资格。特朗普承继了麦卡锡-科恩的衣钵，也听从了科恩对他的建议：“永远不要认错。”</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/16D6F/production/_105215539_gettyimages-578551334_02.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/16D6F/production/_105215539_gettyimages-578551334_02.jpg" alt="特朗普和罗伊·科恩（1984年）。" width="5950" height="3925" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">特朗普和罗伊·科恩（1984年）。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">保守派政论家戴维·布鲁克斯（David Brooks）预测：特朗普不可能平静地接受全线溃败的前景，他必将负隅顽抗, 攻击司法，攻击真相。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普已经和可能采用的主要手段有：</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">制造国内危机</strong>：据前共和党副总统丹·奎尔的幕僚长、保守派政论家比尔·克里斯托（Bill Kristol）分析，美国目前的"边境墙"争议和由此产生的政府关门是特朗普人工制造出来的一个危机，因为他面对即将收紧的法网和民主党国会的传票，不知如何应对。所以他重提修墙的竞选口号，要求国会拨款修建边境围墙，以激发他的铁杆支持者的“热情”。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">国会不拨款，预算案不能通过，联邦政府部分关门。农业部、商务部、国土安全部、住宅和城市发展部、内务部、司法部、环保署、负责外交的国务院、财务部和负责税收的国税局、负责全国航空安全的交通局（TSA）， 负责全国食品卫生检察的食品药品管理局（FDA）等等都陷于半瘫痪状态，80万联邦工作人员停发工资。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普关闭政府之举以联邦政府和美国人民为人质，严重破坏社会秩序，伤及美国基本民生。特朗普已经放出风声，甚至可能宣布“国家紧急状态”，绕过国会，强行挪用军费建墙，或者挪用联邦救灾署FEMA救助灾民的紧急款。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" alt="Short presentational grey line" width="1333" height="50" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">妖魔化移民/煽动族群仇恨：</strong>对穆斯林国家公民的旅行禁令煽动对美国境内穆斯林族群的歧视；针对虚拟的非法移民"入侵" (invasion) 的边境墙激发种族主义者对南美裔移民的仇恨; 针对想象中的遍布美国大学和高科技公司的中国间谍的"中国专案" （China Initiative）呼应一个多世纪前的《排华法案》(Chinese Exclusion Act)。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普谎称南方边境抓获了数千名试图入境的恐怖份子，但国土安全部数字表明，2018年只有6名在敏感人物数据库中的恐怖份子嫌犯出现在南方边境。2019年1月9日，小特朗普公开声称边境墙就如同动物园的围墙，把人类（美国人）和动物（移民）分隔开来，保证人类（美国人）的安全，不受动物（移民）的攻击。将其他种族非人化，然后对其采取极端手段，是种族主义的基本策略。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">无论是旅行禁令、边境墙和抓中国间谍，对特朗普的支持者都不会增加丝毫利益。但是，只要特朗普继续伤害他的支持者仇恨的移民、难民和少数民族，他的铁杆支持者们就会继续支持他。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" alt="Short presentational grey line" width="1333" height="50" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">制造国际矛盾/贸易战：</strong>特朗普挑起对华贸易战，攻击德国、法国、加拿大等美国在西方世界的主要盟友，外交上却对俄罗斯、土耳其和沙特阿拉伯等国的独裁者唯唯诺诺。（《时代》杂志报道从叙利亚撤兵的主意出自土耳其总统埃尔多安2018年12月14日对特朗普的电话要求。）</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">据《新闻周刊》和路透社报道，“双输”的美中贸易战已经给美中两国各造成30亿美元的直接损失。两届艾美奖得主、著名演员罗伯特·雷纳（Robert Reiner）直言： 特朗普是一个极其蹩脚的商人，他至今六次破产，除了被俄国黑帮用来洗钱的特朗普大楼之外，特朗普赌场、“大学”、航空公司、牛排、饮用水、基金会，几乎所有生意均以关门告终。所以，如果他向经营他的自己的生意那样经营美国联邦政府，政府必定关门，国家必定破产。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" alt="Short presentational grey line" width="1333" height="50" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">摧毁体制/攻击司法体系/攻击新闻媒体：</strong>布鲁克斯认为，特朗普试图将独立司法体制和独立新闻媒体“非法化”（delegitimize）。这样，当特别检察官的起诉、法庭传票到达白宫，当新闻媒体报道他的丑闻和罪行的时候，他就宣称他被“非法”的法院和新闻媒体迫害。独立司法和新闻自由是西方民主制度的最基本保障。摧毁了独立司法和新闻自由，民主制度就不复存在。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/FB9C/production/_90021446_grey_line_new.jpg" alt="Short presentational grey line" width="1333" height="50" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><strong style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">特赦本人、家庭成员和下属：</strong>美国宪法规定了总统拥有特赦权力，特朗普一直声称他可以特赦本人和其他犯罪份子。但哈佛大学法学院讲座教授、宪法权威劳伦斯·特里布（Laurence Tribe）分析：总统特赦权力只能由通过合法手段得到职位的总统行使。如果总统职位通过非法手段（如违反竞选法律、欺诈、勾结外国等）获取，该总统不能行使特赦权力，否则与宪法基本精神相违背。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普自认为在联邦政府预算僵局和贸易战上的立场都是他“力量”的象征，但保守派专栏作家珍妮佛·鲁宾（Jennifer Rubin）认为，特朗普是一个“弱主总统”（weak president），他毫无自己的立场。边境墙、反移民和对华贸易战最初都是极右的福克斯电视台和广播脱口秀主持人汉尼提（Sean Hannity）、英格汉姆（Laura Ingraham）、林堡（Rush Linbaugh）和琼斯（Alex Jones）等人灌输给特朗普的主意。这些主持人的听众就是特朗普的基本盘，所以特朗普对这些主持人的信口开河完全言听计从。美利坚合众国实际上在被极右的电视、电台主持人所领导。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C50B/production/_101534405_presentational_grey_line464-nc.png" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/C50B/production/_101534405_presentational_grey_line464-nc.png" alt="Presentational grey line" width="464" height="2" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /></span></figure><h2>未知的前景</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">现已离职的国防部长马蒂斯（James Mattis）在2018年12月31日发给国防部全体将士的辞别信中，引用林肯总统在内战中给格兰特（Ulysses Grant）将军的电报。媒体分析马蒂斯以此来警示三军将士和美国国民：美利坚合众国现在的内部分裂已经不亚于内战时期。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">多位经济学家预计美国经济将在2019年下半年进入萧条。悲观的政治观察家们认为：美国民主体制完全瘫痪，权力制衡和自我纠错能力失灵，国家完全没有能力应对未来不可避免的金融危机、自然灾难或者恐怖主义袭击。当灾难发生的时候，美国将陷入空前的混乱和衰退。同时，特朗普可以趁火打劫，以救灾、救市为名宣布国家紧急状态，攫取空前权力。一如小布什在2001年9/11事件后，一夜从《布什诉戈尔案》中解脱，完成“合法化”过程。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6484px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/5FE7/production/_105215542_gettyimages-1058562984_1.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/5FE7/production/_105215542_gettyimages-1058562984_1.jpg" alt="现已离职的国防部长马蒂斯在2018年12月31日发给国防部全体将士的辞别信中，引用林肯总统在内战中给格兰特将军的电报。" width="5472" height="3648" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.211px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">现已离职的国防部长马蒂斯在2018年12月31日发给国防部全体将士的辞别信中，引用林肯总统在内战中给格兰特将军的电报。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">另一方面，前环保署长和小布什的顾问斯登伯格（Alan Steinberg）在1月2日发表社评预言特朗普必将在2019年中辞职：特朗普及其家人、亲信组成的犯罪集团面临多重法律困境，他最终将以总统职位为交易筹码，同意辞职以换取不被起诉和逮捕。在特朗普与法治的较量中，法治必然取得最终的胜利。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">对民主体制仍然持有坚定信心的观察家们认为美利坚合众国一定会走出这场噩梦。美国曾经经历过内战、种族隔离、大萧条、麦卡锡主义、越战、水门事件，尽管现在的法治危机和极权主义倾向确实史无前例，但美国民主的韧性体现在国父们在宪法中设计的三权分立制度，体现在联邦最高法院通过司法审查巩固下来的平等保护和正当程序，体现在为民请命的民权组织和专业客观的新闻媒体身上。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但是，特朗普和他制造出来的各种丑闻几乎占据了美国社会生活与话语的所有空间，真正与国家安全和民生密切相关的其它话题都退居二线：控制枪支、环境保护、医疗改革、食品安全、科技创新、减少贫困、基础设施维修、防范自然灾难等等都淡出公共讨论，这将是对美国综合国力的永久损害。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2020年总统大选前奏已经开始，一批具有极高政治智慧和人格魅力的新一代候选人已经出现。年轻一代的政治家会努力拆掉隔离移民、隔离族群、隔离不同宗教、隔离不同意识形态群体的物理高墙和心理高墙，修复被破坏的民主体制，恢复美国精神。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">边境隔离墙的概念最早出自1924年三K党大会上乔治亚州州长克里夫特·沃克（Clifford Walker）提出的：“建一个像天一样高的墙”以挡住移民。2019年，美国会做出选择：未来美国的象征将继续是纽约港自由岛上的自由女神像，还是一堵墙。</p>