<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="独立学者邓聿文认为，习近平上台后，中国社会积累了大量的问题，有些问题非常严峻，足以构成对中共政权的挑战和冲击。" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/1D62/production/_105422570_gettyimages-987692444.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">独立学者邓聿文认为，习近平上台后，中国社会积累了大量的问题，有些问题非常严峻，足以构成对中共政权的挑战和冲击。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;"><em style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">（注：本文不代表BBC观点和立场。）</em></p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">进入2019年，中共对重大风险的警觉性骤然升高。习近平在省部级领导干部研讨班的开班讲话中强调要有底线思维，防范化解来自各个方面和领域的重大风险，确保政治、意识形态、科技、社会等安全。全国公安厅局长会议更是直接将“颜色革命”作为今年的主要挑战。中共此种风声鹤唳，严防死守是神经过敏的反应，还是他们直接感受到了危机就在眼前？</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 23px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">坦率地说，习近平上台后，中国社会积累了大量的问题，有些问题非常严峻，足以构成对中共政权的挑战和冲击。这些问题和挑战有：</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（1）经济增速长期处于收缩通道。改革40年，中国大多数年份平均10%的增长构成了中共执政合法性的重要基础，然而最近几年，高增长不再，且经济下行的趋势在未来几年也难以得到缓解。中国今年的经济增速定在百分之6至6.5区间，就是一个严重信号。一些经济学家认为，就中国的国情言，未来经济增长不能低于6%，否则会出大问题。原因在于，虽然中国经济体量庞大，但仍需要有一定的增速去解决只有靠增长才能解决的问题。若经济增速过低，以前被高增长遮蔽的问题和矛盾就得以显露和激化，影响到就业、中央和地方财政收入、社会保障，以及其他各种支出，削弱中国政府解决问题的能力。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-46942422" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中国去年GDP增6.6% 数据背后的隐忧与对策</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-43595219" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">贸易战是否会将中国推向“失落的二十年”</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-46962132" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中国经济增长放缓为何令所有人忧虑？</a></li></ul><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/B9A2/production/_105422574_gettyimages-1089327654.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/B9A2/production/_105422574_gettyimages-1089327654.jpg" alt="邓聿文认为，经济增速长期处于收缩通道是中共面临的挑战之一" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">邓聿文认为，经济增速长期处于收缩通道是中共面临的挑战之一</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（2）收入分配不公和贫富分化不断加剧，相对剥夺感逼近人们的心理底线。40年改革虽然在绝对意义上提高了民众的收入和生活水平，但相对收入分配差距一直在扩大，这种情况近年尤其加剧，甚至影响到绝对收入的下降。中国的基尼系数早已突破国际公认的0.5心理防线。贫富分化不断恶化不但会制约中国的经济转型，也将产生严重的政治后果，如阶层对立，尤其是中产阶级的重新贫困化等。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（3）权贵利益集团的滋长与顽固。中国改革的一大后果是形成了大大小小的利益集团，而它们多半是以官商一体的形式出现的，权力全面渗透进经济和商业活动，形成了所谓的官家或权贵资本主义。中国政府的政策和决策，很大程度上被这些权贵利益集团所左右、影响和消解。习近平的反腐虽然打掉了其中的一些权贵集团，然而，他们的财富不过是转移到另一些权贵集团手里，民众并未得到财富转移的好处。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/A5A7/production/_104870424_gettyimages-1036308158.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/A5A7/production/_104870424_gettyimages-1036308158.jpg" alt="邓聿文认为，乡村溃败与城市流民将对中共基层政权的稳定和城市社会治安带来严重挑战" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">邓聿文认为，乡村溃败与城市流民将对中共基层政权的稳定和城市社会治安带来严重挑战</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（4）乡村溃败与城市流民。中国是一个二元结构社会，二元结构表现在许多方面，其中最突出的就是城乡，城市的繁荣与农村的衰败形成了鲜明对比。虽然中国的城市化率最近几年增长很快，已经超过50%，一半多人口生活在城市，但这种城市化是虚假的、没有实质内容的城市化，原因是城市化以掠夺农村为代价，其城市化政策并未使过亿的城市农民享受政府普惠的公共服务。在经济困难时，这种情况更突出。从而在城市产生大量流民，长期看，将对中共基层政权的稳定和城市社会治安，带来严重挑战。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（5）社会分化与阶层对立。中国社会也呈现出高度分化和对立的特点。不仅城乡分化和对立，官民之间，底层民众与上层精英之间，乃至不同思想流派和知识分子之间，也产生严峻对立。上层的凝固化与下层的碎片化，官民的冲突，知识精英的相互拆台，使社会整合的难度空前加大，无疑不利中共统治。</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-45194182" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">“学习班”扩张 高压下的新疆日常</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-46120247" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中国新疆穆斯林再教育营资金“曝光”</a></li></ul><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（6）互联网政治。网络的出现特别是自媒体改变了中国社会的生态，提升了全民尤其是底层大众的民权意识，形成了中国特有的网络政治。网络揭丑和抗争虽然减少了民众广场运动的可能性，但由于网络传播的即时、扩散和放大效应，其压力同样不可小觑。目前，中共一方面加强对新媒体的管控，打压异议声音和网络媒体，将民众驱赶到广场；一方面用官方的新媒体引导舆论，但总体而言，其治理严重不适应互联网时代的现实。尽管阿拉伯之春没在中国出现，但未来不排除此种可能。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（7）民族矛盾急剧上升。中共民族政策未能做到与时俱进，经济的发展反而成为民族分裂的一个催化剂。在过去第三波民主潮流的影响下，中国的民族矛盾也以争取民主的形式出现，虽然这些年来中共对藏族、维族等民族的打压不遗余力，导致他们争民主的努力受挫，但民族分离运动也在这种打压中形成，挑战国家统一。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111;"><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/720×405/p06pqg5d.jpg" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px -25.6719px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; display: block; position: absolute;" alt="" /><div style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px; position: relative;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div id="sticky-player-1" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><figure data-playable="{"settings":{"counterName":"zhongwensimp.chinese_news.story.47079653.page","edition":"US","pageType":"eav2","uniqueID":"47079653","ui":{"locale":{"lang":"zh-hans"}},"externalEmbedUrl":"https:\\/\\/www.bbc.com\\/zhongwen\\/simp\\/chinese-news-47079653\\/embed","insideIframe":false,"statsObject":{"clipPID":"p06pqfhg"},"playlistObject":{"title":"\\u6d88\\u5931\\u7684\\u7ef4\\u543e\\u5c14\\u4eba\\uff1aBBC\\u63a2\\u8bbf\\u65b0\\u7586\\u201c\\u518d\\u6559\\u80b2\\u8425\\u201d","holdingImageURL":"https:\\/\\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\\/images\\/ic\\/$recipe\\/p06pqg5d.jpg","guidance":"","embedRights":"allowed","summary":"\\u6d88\\u5931\\u7684\\u7ef4\\u543e\\u5c14\\u4eba\\uff1aBBC\\u63a2\\u8bbf\\u65b0\\u7586\\u201c\\u518d\\u6559\\u80b2\\u8425\\u201d","liveRewind":false,"simulcast":false,"items":[{"vpid":"p06pqfhj","live":false,"duration":273,"kind":"programme"}]}},"otherSettings":{"advertisingAllowed":true,"continuousPlayCfg":{"enabled":false},"isAutoplayOnForAudience":false}}" id="media-player-1" style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px 0px 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; height: 0px;"><div id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1wrp" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 346.609px; vertical-align: baseline; z-index: 999; position: relative; height: 0px; width: 616.203px;"><iframe id="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" name="smphtml5iframemedia-player-1" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://emp.bbc.com/emp/SMPj/2.23.12/iframe.html" gesture="media" allow="autoplay" title="消失的维吾尔人：BBC探访新疆“再教育营”" style="border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 616.203px; height: 346.609px;"></iframe></div></figure></div><div style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div></div></div></div></div></div><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;">消失的维吾尔人：BBC探访新疆“再教育营”</figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（8）腐败和政治认同的流失。腐败既是公权力滥用和国家治理失败的结果，同时亦会恶化大众对政权的认同。中共的腐败已经失控。虽然习近平发起了声势浩大的反腐运动，抓了许多高级官员，然而，并未能改善各级政府严重的信用赤字，官民和党群的对立进一步加深，裂痕进一步加大，这将瓦解中共的执政根基。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">（9）地缘政治恶化。过去几年，由于习近平实行的一系列鲁莽的对外扩张政策，导致中国的外部环境和地缘政治恶化，特别是中美的全面较量和冲突使得中国和西方世界的矛盾空前紧张。外部环境的恶化会压缩中国的国际空间，导致经济的内卷化，并催生和激化国内已有的各种矛盾。如果未来地缘政治环境仍然处于紧张态势，无疑非常不利中共统治。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">需要指出，上述问题和风险不是单一和单向作用，而是互相影响和强化，它们形成合力，构成对中共政权安全的重大挑战。尽管中共目前能够采取强力维稳手段将各种挑战政权的力量压制下去。但如果不能改善治理，在民主与法治的基础上重建合法性，靠镇压终非良策，而且事实上也不可能。</p>