<h1><a href="http://gdb.voanews.eu/6A58D453-DDD8-4BE4-B615-1554E28FD502_mw800_s.jpg" rel="ibox" title="令计划在2010年3月14日" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; background-color: #ffffff; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none; color: #132fbe; "><img border="0" src="http://gdb.voanews.eu/6A58D453-DDD8-4BE4-B615-1554E28FD502_w640_r1_s.jpg" style="border-style: none; display: block; margin: 10px 0px; " alt="" /></a></h1><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; clear: both; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; width: 640px; "><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #666666; line-height: 13px; margin-top: -6px; padding-top: 0px; display: block; padding-bottom: 12px; clear: both; ">令计划在2010年3月14日</span></div><div> </div><div><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">香港–胡锦涛的重要助手令计划由于儿子的车祸丑闻而仕途受挫，一些学者专家对令计划的政治前途看法不一。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*车祸波及中南海*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">综合南华早报、路透社、洛杉矶时报等媒体的报道，今年3月，令计划的儿子令谷驾驶法拉利豪华轿车发生撞车事故而身亡，当时车中有两名女子，其中一名一丝不挂。报道说，警方按照令计划的愿望或要求而掩盖事故真相以及死者身份；这招致党内和政府内的强烈批评，包括江泽民的批评。结果令计划被贬职，也损害了胡锦涛在卸任之后保持影响力的计划。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*入局，还是逐步出局？*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">一些人把令计划被调离中央办公厅称作降职。但北京的政治分析家陈子明在接受美国之音采访时表示：“他也不叫降职，只是离开了最关键性的岗位。因为我觉得，十八大上，他仍然有机会进政治局。”</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">不过陈子明也认为令计划没有希望担任常委。陈子明还认为令计划之子车祸丑闻对令计划仕途影响很大，不过令计划在升迁路上受挫折与他资历不足也有关，他没当过省级一把手，而这对于现在在中共内部晋升是很关键的因素。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">但是，温家宝也没有省一级的行政经验。陈子明说，温家宝是个特例，而且他在晋升前管理过农业、金融等部门。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">香港城市大学当代中国研究中心教授郑宇硕告诉VOA,令计划肯定是名声受损。过去有传言说，他可能被提升为中共中央政治局常委。而今，看来他被安排逐步退出政治舞台。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">郑宇硕还表示，必须承认，随着胡锦涛失去总书记职务，他的接班人肯定希望拥有自己的人来领导中央办公厅。这是通常的做法，新领导人愿意让他能充分信任的人管理自己的办事机构。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*从传言绯闻到大报要闻*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">令计划之子的车祸发生在几乎5个多月之前，而这个事件过去一直没有浮出水面，到最近才被海外媒体曝光。为什么等了这么长时间呢？</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">中国问题专家郑宇硕说，他也找不到令人满意的答案，本来，这个故事在北京等大城市作为闲谈绯闻而流传。那时候，令计划的仕途仍然看好。后来似乎有关方面做了一些安排，这些故事冒了出来。显然，当局正式宣布令计划不再担任中央办公厅主任，引起了一些推测。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">令计划之子事件对中国的权力交接有什么影响呢？德勤会计师事务所的中国研究暨洞察力中心（Deloitte\’s China Research and Insight Center）主任杜志豪（Kenneth J.DeWoskin）对VOA表示，人们推测，这确实弱化了胡锦涛及其手下那些将要参加李克强新政府的人。这件事也许也弱化了他们在决定新的7人政治局常委人选方面的影响力。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">对于南华早报大力报道令计划之子车祸的事件，杜志豪说，南华早报发表这个故事，让我们吃惊。因为南华早报自从香港回归中国大陆后就一直是比较听话，循规蹈矩的报纸。但是最近，出于我们不能完全理解的原因，南华早报在报道中国权力交接和薄熙来案件、谷开来审判方面变得比较大胆了。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">杜志豪还表示，事情一旦被全球性媒体报道，显然就会在世界各地引起许多注意。我们看到，所有主要媒体都报道了这件事，这是因为它在中国很有政治意义。</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">*丑闻已惊党中央 不容再扰十八大*</span><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><br style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; " /><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; background-color: #ffffff; ">南华早报总编辑王向伟在这家英文报纸的专栏文章中写道，尽管党内对令计划儿子的事件反应强烈，但是中国领导人似乎决定把这个事件扫到地毯底下，估计这是因为中共在距离领导层换届如此接近的时候，受不了又一场大丑闻。王向伟还表示，令计划转任统战部长，是个强烈迹象，显示胡锦涛要让他栽培起来的人软着陆，不过这也显示，令计划进入中国政治局的希望也大为渺茫了。</span> <br /> </div><div id="mainMediaBig" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; line-height: 18px; background-color: #ffffff; "></div><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15.199999809265137px; line-height: 22px; background-color: #ffffff; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 8px; font-size: 15px; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #969595; padding: 0px 0px 0px 6px; margin: 0px; font-size: 10px; float: right; text-transform: uppercase; line-height: 10px; "><span style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; float: left; padding-right: 6px; display: block; line-height: 15px; "><br /><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #717070; padding: 0px 0px 6px; margin: 0px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 15px; "></div><p style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; color: #717070; padding: 0px; margin-bottom: 1.5em; font-size: 11px; line-height: 11px; "><br /></p></div><div id="ctl00_ctl00_cpAB_cp1_cbcContentBreak" style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15px; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 135px; font-size: 15px; "><div style="font-family: NSimSun, SimSun, PMingLiU, Arial, Helvetica, \’Arial Unicode MS\’, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; font-size: 15px; "></div><br /></div></div></div>