<div><div style="display: inline-block;"></div></div> <div style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dbdbdb; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 16px; vertical-align: baseline; overflow: auto; width: 645.327px; background-color: #ffffff;"><img alt="习近平欢迎杜特尔特总统访华" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/660/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2016/10/20/161020104728_china_xi_duterte_visit_624x351_xinhua.jpg" width="624" height="351" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; background-color: #111111; 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vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image copyright</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">XINHUA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px 1px 1px 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">中国国家主席习近平为菲律宾总统杜特尔特举行欢迎仪式</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">《经济学家》杂志周四（10月20日）在其网络版刊登分析文章，评论菲律宾总统杜特尔特“仓促的重心”转移，提出的问题是：美国老朋友菲律宾投入中国阵营了吗？</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">今年7月中国对菲律宾提出的南海国际仲裁结果反应愤怒，而本周中国红地毯热烈欢迎"善变的“菲律宾总统杜特尔特。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这对美国“亚洲中心”究竟意谓着什么呢？</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">美国军方一直坚持认为，与菲律宾的密切工作关系还“一如既往地紧密”，菲律宾方面也没有听说任何新命令。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">文章说，尽管如此，杜特尔特在提及中国时就像是个”情迷意乱的情人”，他向中国官方媒体夸奖中国对穷国援助慷慨大方，没有所图，“只有中国能帮我们”和“我的外公是华人”。</p><h2>图什么？</h2><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">文章问：他到底想要什么？</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“他想要大量的基础设施，特别是铁路；中国提供便宜的贷款。他希望菲律宾出口更多；中国提出将向菲律宾水果再次开放市场。他希望在缉毒仗中获得支持；中国一个商人将兴建大型戒毒中心。他想菲律宾渔民能重回黄岩岛附近传统的水域捕鱼；中国已经告诉菲律宾官员这个水域渔民可以去。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">文章认为，美国方面在与菲律宾结盟过程中收获那么多，应该早就看到菲律宾在南海问题上与中国针锋相对所付出的代价。“又或者，美国根本就不应该以为菲律宾所有政客都本能对美国有归属感。”</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">该文章评论说，杜特尔特总统的手法可能“不计后果，但也不一定会长久”。中国暂时希望将菲律宾拉入自己的阵营。所以中国还没有尝试在黄岩岛上兴建军事设施。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">文章预计，中国要达成协议，将必须开出比捕鱼权更多的优惠条件，菲律宾方面才可能接受。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">而美国不妨耐心点。</p><p style="border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">“菲律宾会回到美国阵营去的。等到那一天，两边都可以说，菲律宾从来就没走开啊。”</p></div>