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color:#333333">2</span><span style="font-family:DengXian;Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#333333">、</span><span style="font-family:DengXian;">林鄭月娥之优势——北京背書：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;Arial Unicode MS";Arial Unicode MS";color:#333333">全國政協副主席的團結香港基金主席董建華，在基金會議上談及若曾俊華當選，中央不會任命</span><span style="font-family:DengXian;">。</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">張德江率領屬下王光亞，張曉明等官員南下深圳，</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">用車輪攻勢恐嚇選委，張德江以政治局名義表態稱中央「唯一支持林鄭月娥」</span></p> <p>3<span style="font-family:DengXian;">、曾俊華之優勢——在民間，其民調一直高於林鄭月娥。獲泛民廣泛支持。</span></p> <p>4<span style="font-family:DengXian;">、關鍵戰場：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">選舉委員會</span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">民主派的三百多票一票不少地投給曾俊華也不能成功，需要向工商界取票二百七十多張。是否有這麼多人在暗票下轉向曾。</span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">有議論稱林鄭只獲五百多提名票，這是她的極限，在暗票下不會增票只會減票？</span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">胡國興是否會分走曾俊華的票？</span></p> <p> </p> <p><strong><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:107%;font-family:DengXian;">四、三位各自出任特首的政治含義</span></strong><strong></strong></p> <p><strong><span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:107%"> </span></strong><span style="font-family:DengXian;">林鄭特首的香港：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">「張張梁林集團」——延續梁的管治路線，唯命是從於北京</span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">曾特首的香港： 地下黨親共派，港府建制派和民主派三足鼎立，類似曾蔭權時代。</span></p> <p> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">胡特首的香港：</span> <span style="font-family:DengXian;">香港司法獨立獲相當保障，泛民派力量有所增長。</span></p> <p> </p>