<div></div><div><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">我是两个帝国的儿子，一个是美国，另一个是中国。虽然我是在从尼克松到里根的时代在华盛顿附近出生、长大的，但我的父母都生长在中国南方的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/world/asia/04taishan.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">村子</a>里。在共产党统治的头十年，也就是1950年代，我父亲曾<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170619/mongolian-warriors-and-communist-soldiers-a-frontier-town-in-china/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">在中国人民解放军当过兵</a>，后来他对革命失望，离开大陆去了香港。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">所以，当《纽约时报》派我到中国工作时，我怀着激动的心情于2008年4月来到北京，在中国住了将近十年的时间。在那之前，我已经为报道<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/weekinreview/03wong.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">美利坚帝国伊拉克计划的惨重失败</a>工作了近四年；而此刻，我来到了正在建立一种世界新秩序的国家的首都。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">中国当时与其他国家进入了蜜月期。人们对2008年的夏季奥运会已期待了好几年了。虽然中国在那年春天镇压了<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/world/asia/24tibet.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">西藏的一次起义</a>，但在经历了<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/world/asia/13scene.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">一次破坏性极大的地震</a>之后，中国再次赢得了国际社会的好感。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">人们蜂拥而至来到北京，参加中国在世界舞台上“首次亮相”的聚会。<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/arts/design/13build.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">耀眼的建筑</a>和标志着中国雄心的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/09/sports/olympics/09china.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">奥运会开幕式</a>,让外国领导人看得目瞪口呆。庆典结束后，世界步入了另一个转折点——美国金融体系的突然崩溃和全球经济危机。中国经济的持续增长不仅支撑了全球经济，也支撑了中国官员中的一种信念，那就是，中国的经济和政治体系可以与美国的相匹敌。</p><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2rem -0.9375rem; width: auto; padding: 0px; border: none; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; float: none; margin: 0px;"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong1/merlin_107001671_f0f2e50b-7c0c-4c73-b182-db369f12d6c7-master1050.jpg" alt="习近平主席在阅兵。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong1/merlin_107001671_f0f2e50b-7c0c-4c73-b182-db369f12d6c7-master1050.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; height: auto;" /></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-left: 0.9375rem; line-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.8125rem; color: #666666;">习近平主席在阅兵。</span> <cite style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.6875rem; color: #666666; text-transform: uppercase; font-style: normal;">NG HAN GUAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS</cite></figcaption></figure><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">尽管中国对威权主义毫不掩饰，但这个国家仍具有强大的吸引力。我曾和许多人一样，认为中国在开启一个具有新观念、新价值和新文化的充满活力的时代，一个适合其超级大国地位的时代的同时，可能会稳步进入一个自信的、更加开放的状态。但当我在去年结束我在中国的工作时，我已不再这样指望了。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">从<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20171110/donald-trump-china-trade-xi-jinping/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">贸易</a>到<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20170818/alibaba-sales-revenue-first-quarter-profit/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">互联网</a>，从<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytstyle.com/education-career/20170203/the-parachute-generation-part-1/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">高等教育</a>到<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20150428/c28wang/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">好莱坞</a>，中国正在以某种方式塑造世界，而人们对这些方式的领悟才刚刚开始。但是，中华新帝国的出现，与其说靠的是中国的思想或<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/world/asia/culture-and-control-in-china-series.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">当代文化</a>的吸引力，不如说是共产党行使硬实力、包括<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/world/asia/21china.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">经济胁迫</a>的结果。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">在曾经主宰19世纪的全球大国中，只有中国是一个正在复兴的帝国。中国共产党统治着一片广阔的疆域，这片领土是清朝的满族统治者用战争和外交手段拼凑起来的。而且，这个版图可能还要扩大：中国正在使用自己的军事力量来测试对<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20140617/c17islands/undefinedrss.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">南中国海</a>和<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20170727/dolam-plateau-china-india-bhutan/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">喜马拉雅山脉</a>有争议边疆的潜在控制权，同时在国内激发民族主义情绪。世界各国再次纷纷前来朝廷表敬意，这次是在2015年举行的一个盛大<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20150903/c03parade-update/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">阅兵式</a>上。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">几十年来，美国曾是信奉法治、言论自由、廉洁政府和人权等价值观的人的全球灯塔。即使美国的政策常常不能达到这些表述出来的理想，但美国的“软实力”仍保持着与其武力一样的强大效力。在后苏联时代，政治人物和学者们认为，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148580?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">通过吸引来积累控制力</a>的美国方式是建立现代帝国的核心要素。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">中国的崛起与这种观点形成一个直截了当的对比。自2009年起，中国在国内和国际领域施展的控制力，已成为野蛮力量、贿赂和恫吓的代名词，而这个共产党的帝国正在变得越来越强大。</p><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2rem -0.9375rem; width: auto; padding: 0px; border: none; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; float: none; margin: 0px;"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07wong2/merlin_121901555_d96468e1-c427-44e7-8e38-ac8d5b1d01ea-master1050.jpg" alt="老挝瑯勃拉邦，横跨湄公河的高铁建设工地外的海报。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07wong2/merlin_121901555_d96468e1-c427-44e7-8e38-ac8d5b1d01ea-master1050.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; height: auto;" /></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-left: 0.9375rem; line-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.8125rem; color: #666666;">老挝瑯勃拉邦，横跨湄公河的高铁建设工地外的海报。</span> <cite style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.6875rem; color: #666666; text-transform: uppercase; font-style: normal;">ADAM DEAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES</cite></figcaption></figure><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">在国内，中共将<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20150723/c23lawyers/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">维权律师</a>关进监狱，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20171215/net-neutrality-china-internet/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">压制互联网</a>，强迫企业和大学<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20170213/china-the-party-corporate-complex/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">设置党组织</a>，还打算建立一个可能是奥威尔式的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20180105/china-alibaba-privacy/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">“社会信用”系统</a>；在国外，中共正在有争议的太平洋珊瑚礁上建造军事设施，并悄悄打入计算机网络。中国在欧亚大陆推出的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20170515/china-railway-one-belt-one-road-1-trillion-plan/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">“一带一路”基础设施计划</a>，虽然对其他国家有利，但也让中国能向这些国家施压，要求它们与中国国有企业建立业务往来，正如中国<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/world/asia/21china.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">近年来在亚洲和非洲所做的</a>那样。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">迄今为止，中国的软实力起了次要的作用。部分原因是中国共产党坚持<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/world/asia/culture-and-control-in-china-series.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">严格控制文化产品</a>，这使得中国的流行文化与美国的、甚至韩国的相比，在全球范围内几乎没有吸引力。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">没有任何国家比挪威更知悉中国的硬实力了。2010年，独立于政府的诺贝尔委员会把和平奖授予了身陷囹圄的亲民主中国作家刘晓波（他<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170713/liu-xiaobo-dies-at-61/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">已于去年7月因癌症逝世</a>）之后，中国<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/world/20161219/china-norway-nobel-liu-xiaobo/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">用切断外交和经济关系的方法惩罚</a>了挪威六年。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">国家主席习近平是新帝国的化身。去年10月召开的中共十九大是他<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171025/china-xi-jinping-constitution/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">庆祝胜利的时刻</a>。中共官员把“习近平思想”写入党章，将他与毛泽东相提并论。习近平说，中国已进入一个强大的“新时代”，中国共产党将是公共生活的决定者。习近平对渴望成为铁腕人物的外国领导人有吸引力——特朗普总统公开对他表示钦佩。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">许多中国人对我说，即使中共正在腐败，但他们仍相信中国的最高领导人在为普通民众着想。这种信念扎根于抽象的希望，而不是来自于经验的证据。这就像是透过<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20130806/c06wong/" title="Link: https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20130806/c06wong/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">包围着中国城市的有毒空气</a>寻找蓝天那样。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">硬实力的文化是自上而下的。在全国各省，中共官员迅速压制任何挑战他们权威的东西。当他们意识可能发生大规模抵抗时，他们收买或监禁领导抵抗的人。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">我在中国工作的头一年里就看到了这种情况，官员们打破了被<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/world/asia/17milk.html" title="Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/world/asia/17milk.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">致命毒奶粉</a>激怒的父母的意志，也打破了哀思成千上万的在四川地震中<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/world/asia/05china.html" title="Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/world/asia/05china.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">因豆腐渣校舍而死亡</a>的孩子们的父母的意志。我懂得了这是中国官员惯用的典型方法。大多数中国人避免与党发生冲突，那样做的人会付出高昂的代价。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">滥用权力的事情经常发生。许多中国人说，腐败是他们最关心的问题。从环境恶化到<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20121026/c26princeling/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">贫富不均</a>，所有其他问题都与腐败有关。习近平精明地利用了腐败所引发的不满情绪：他领导了一场让他能够拿下对手、加强党内纪律的反腐败运动。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">所有这些并没有带来法治。中国近年来的国内安全预算已经超过其军事预算，虽然两者都在迅速增长，这突显了中国对硬实力的投资。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">我在2016年得知，年轻商人扎西文色(Tashi Wangchuk)因向我讲述他倡导更广泛的藏语教育的努力，在自己的家乡玉树被警方拘留。扎西文色曾在微博上要求地方官员推行真正的双语教育，他曾出现在<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/world/asia/china-tibet-language-education.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">时报2015年的报道和视频</a>中。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">扎西文色是那种应该受到中国珍视的公民，这种公民在法律框架之内，提出一些有利于普通老百姓、缓解紧张气氛的政策建议。但在被拘留了两年之后，他仍在被监禁。尽管有来自于西方外交官和人权组织的批评，但上周四，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170120/china-tibetan-education-advocate/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">法院仍以“煽动分裂国家”的罪名对他进行了庭审</a>。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">尽管中华帝国的地位不断提高，但是共产党的统治方式让人们产生对中国不利的看法。历史让我们懂得一个不可避免的辩证法：强权产生反抗。虽然国家可以让人民屈服于其意志，但人民将以恐惧和怀疑的态度面对国家。美国每次<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/column/vietnam-67" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">过度依赖硬实力</a>时，都重温了这一教训。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">我经常去<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/25/world/asia/25tibet.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">边境地区</a>旅行，因为<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20160620/china-climate-change-nu-river-greenhouse-gases/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">强权与反抗的互动</a>在这些地区最明显，在这里我<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20161025/zhongguo-qihou-bianhua-shengtai-yimin/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">最清楚地看到了</a>中国如何对待<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/26/world/asia/26tibet.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">自己最易受伤害的公民</a>，这些人<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/25/world/asia/china-climate-change-resettlement.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">不属于主流的汉族文化</a>。没有其他地方能更好地体现中华帝国的理念了。这些被满族人征服、被毛泽东纳入版图的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/24/world/asia/living-in-chinas-expanding-deserts.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">边缘地带</a>，构成中国领土的至少四分之一。中共官员担心，这些地区与苏联统治下的中亚地区一样：总是处于叛乱的边缘，总有挣脱束缚的渴望。</p><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2rem -0.9375rem; width: auto; padding: 0px; border: none; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; float: none; margin: 0px;"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong4/merlin_115748438_977d4f82-27d5-47aa-98ee-211d08bf586e-master1050.jpg" alt="新疆喀什，警察在街头巡逻。北京担心新疆的维吾尔族穆斯林会为该区域带来不稳定因素。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong4/merlin_115748438_977d4f82-27d5-47aa-98ee-211d08bf586e-master1050.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; height: auto;" /></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-left: 0.9375rem; line-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.8125rem; color: #666666;">新疆喀什，警察在街头巡逻。北京担心新疆的维吾尔族穆斯林会为该区域带来不稳定因素。</span> <cite style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.6875rem; color: #666666; text-transform: uppercase; font-style: normal;">GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES</cite></figcaption></figure><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;">2016年10月，我悄悄来到藏传佛教一度日益兴旺的<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20161129/china-takes-a-chain-saw-to-a-center-of-tibetan-buddhism/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">喇荣</a>，目睹了政府下令拆除僧侣和尼姑住所的情况。在维吾尔族人聚居的部分新疆地区，<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/weekinreview/12wong.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">暴力和镇压的循环</a>加剧了当地的紧张气氛。维族人压低声音说起<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/world/asia/19xinjiang.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">对伊斯兰教的限制</a>和大规模的拘留。新疆各地都有禁止留长须、戴完全遮盖住脸的面纱的标牌，监控摄像头随处可见。在<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/world/asia/dodging-chinese-police-in-kashgar-a-silk-road-oasis-town.html?_ga=2.208915794.134595294.1515427997-280166754.1483080393" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: #cccccc; outline: 0px; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none; border-radius: 0.25rem;">丝绸之路绿洲城市喀什</a>，做在中国的最后一次旅行报道时，我看到了手持防暴工具的警察围捕几名年轻男子。</p><section style="box-sizing: border-box; border: none; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px auto; max-width: 35.625rem; font-family: Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333;">一个重要的风向标是香港，这里是英国前殖民地，是我父母移民美国前所在的地方。在这个南部边境城市，就像在西部地区一样，中共在大力<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20170818/hong-kong-joshua-wong-jailed-umbrella-movement/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">压制批评其统治的学生、政客和其他批评者的声音</a>。中共特工甚至还绑架了书商。但这些做法实际上导致了更多的反抗，加强了<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20141008/c08identity/undefinedrss.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">香港和说粤语者的身份认同</a>。这些做法也在台湾民众中激起了对北京的更大担忧，台湾是中共渴望统一的自治岛屿。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333;">中共的执政方式让中国人对本国制度和本国同胞的不信任持久化，这种说法并不牵强。中共的国际政策也引起了从<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20171220/australia-china-backlash-influence/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">澳大利亚</a>到<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://cn.nytimes.com/africa/20130607/c07ghana/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #004276; text-decoration-line: none;">加纳</a>的海外反抗。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333;">如果中国作为帝国的实力能变为不仅依靠军事和经济实力，也依靠思想、价值观和文化的话，中国公民和全世界都会受益。中国最辉煌的朝代也是其更开明的朝代。但中国共产党目前靠的是硬实力和胁迫，而这很可能会成为取代美国在全球舞台上日渐式微的自由主义霸权的东西。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.875em; margin-bottom: 1.75rem; color: #333333;">这不会带来世界秩序的宏伟蓝图。相反，我们正面临一个真空。</p><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 2rem -0.9375rem; width: auto; padding: 0px; border: none;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; float: none; margin: 0px;"><img src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong5/merlin_113579932_cd6805a2-c22f-4d1d-ab3e-732d2c412dc6-master1050.jpg" alt="四川洛若乡，佛教徒聚居地的和尚与尼姑。" data-src="https://static01.nyt.com/images/2018/01/07/opinion/sunday/07Wong5/merlin_113579932_cd6805a2-c22f-4d1d-ab3e-732d2c412dc6-master1050.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 600px; height: auto;" /></div><figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-left: 0.9375rem; line-height: 1em; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Georgia, "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.8125rem; color: #666666;">四川洛若乡，佛教徒聚居地的和尚与尼姑。</span> <cite style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; margin: 0px 0px 0.125rem; font-size: 0.6875rem; color: #666666; text-transform: uppercase; font-style: normal;">GILLES SABRIÉ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES</cite></figcaption></figure></section><footer style="box-sizing: border-box; border-top: 1px solid #dddddd; padding-top: 0.5rem; width: 570px; max-width: 35.625rem; margin: 0px auto; font-family: "PingFang SC", "Heiti SC", "Microsoft Yahei", simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-size: 0.8125rem; line-height: 1.5rem;">黄安伟(Edward Wong)是《纽约时报》记者、北京分社前社长，现为哈佛大学尼曼(Nieman)奖学金学者。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #999999; font-size: 0.8125rem; line-height: 1.5rem;">翻译：Cindy Hao</p></footer> </div>