<figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 32px -54.2188px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img alt="美国总统特朗普和中国副总理刘鹤" src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/120C5/production/_106952937_6107b9ee-2614-47c7-82fd-d3c8429bd99e.jpg" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="660" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 645.781px; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">EPA</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">美国5月10日开始对中国2000亿元美元商品加征关税后，中国宣布反制措施，对已加征关税的600亿美元清单的部分美国商品再加关税。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 28px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中美贸易战最近几天可谓战事升级硝烟滚滚，双方都宣布了向对方商品的新征关税措施，数额之大让全球金融市场震荡。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国总统特朗普一再表示，中国将为关税买单，尽管他的经济顾问库德洛（Larry Kudlow）周日承认，实际上从中国进口的商品是美国公司在交关税。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">那么这场贸易战真的像特朗普所说对美国有百利而无一害吗？真的为美国财政带来数以亿计美元的收入吗？</p><h2>贸易战扩大，到底谁是最大的输家呢？</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国跨国律师行Cooley LLP的律师克里斯托弗·邦迪（Christophy Bondy）认定，向美国政府交关税的是美国的进口商，而不是中国公司。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">克里斯托弗·邦迪，曾在加拿大欧盟自由贸易协议谈判过程中担任加拿大政府的高级顾问。他说，美国进口商因交关税而增加的额外成本，很可能用加价的方式直接转嫁到美国消费者身上。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">他说：“关税对供应链有很大的破坏作用。”</p><ul style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 18px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: none; background-color: #ffffff;"><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business-48159486" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中美贸易谈判：特朗普突然威胁加征关税 最后阶段的“硬骨头”和不确定因素</a></li><li style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 18px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px; vertical-align: baseline; list-style: square outside;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-46681914" style="border-width: 0px 0px 1px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-bottom-color: #dcdcdc; border-left-color: initial; border-image: initial; color: #222222; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 1rem; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.75; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(17, 103, 168, 0.3);">中美贸易战： 两国之间高科技较量激战正酣</a></li></ul><h2>关税对中国的影响</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">中国2018年出口上升7%，仍然稳居美国头号贸易伙伴的地位。但是中国对美国的贸易在2018年下滑了9%，显示贸易战的威力已经开始显现。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">尽管如此，英国剑桥大学贸易问题专家梅利迪斯·克罗利博士（Meredith Crowley）说，没有任何证据显示，中国公司已经开始减价来吸引美国公司买货。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“（中国）有些经销高补贴产品的出口商已经退出了市场，因为美国公司开始从其他地方进口。这些中国公司的利润空间太小了，关税显然对他们有影响。”</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; clear: both; background-color: #ffffff;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/16EE5/production/_106952939_us_china_timeline_trade_640_chinese-nc.png" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/16EE5/production/_106952939_us_china_timeline_trade_640_chinese-nc.png" alt="中美贸易战时间表" width="1920" height="3126" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /></span></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“但我认为，那些有市场优势的（中国）产品并没有减价，可能是因为美国进口商对他们有很大的依赖性。”</p><h2>关税对美国的影响</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">根据今年3月的两份研究报告，美国去年向中国和其他国家进口商品征税的全部代价，几乎全部由美国商界和消费者来承担。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">纽约联邦储备银行、普里斯顿大学和哥伦比亚大学的经济学家经过计算得出结论说，向钢铁、洗衣机等在内的众多进口商品征收高关税，让美国公司和消费者，在缴税之外每月额外支出30亿美元。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">他们的统计结果还指出，受需求不振的影响，另外还有14亿美元的损失。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">第二份权威研究报告由多位作者执笔撰写，其中包括世界银行首席经济学家佩妮洛皮∙戈德堡（Pinelopi Goldberg）。该报告发现美国消费者和公司承担了关税成本的绝大部分。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">根据这份报告的分析，把其他国家的反制措施考虑在内，那些在美国2016年大选中支持特朗普的地区内的农民和蓝领工人，是贸易战最大的受害者。</p><h2>美国买其他国家的货品不行吗？</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">特朗普在中美贸易战中表示，那些原本从中国进口商品的美国公司应该到别的地方进货，譬如越南，或者干脆直接购买美国厂家的商品。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但美国跨国律师行Cooley LLP的律师克里斯托弗·邦迪说，这并不像特朗普说的那么简单。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“生产和价值链要重新定位，需要相当长的时间，而且都有代价。”</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/3A4D/production/_106952941_424f53e0-b523-4203-a59b-6eb1bd3fbe35.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/3A4D/production/_106952941_424f53e0-b523-4203-a59b-6eb1bd3fbe35.jpg" alt="可口可乐" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">2018年，美国可口可乐公司在美国加价，应对进口成本的增加。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“例如，美国去年向钢征收高关税，但美国不可能突然之间就能建起数百家新钢厂。另外，中国是一个生产大国，对手们都相形见绌，要在全球供应链中取代中国谈何容易。”</p><h2>增加贸易关税有用吗？</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">剑桥大学的克罗利博士和美国Cooley LLP的律师克里斯托弗·邦迪都表示，几乎没有什么证据证明增加贸易关税有过任何作用。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">来看看以往的例子：</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">2009年，美国时任总统奥巴马曾对中国生产的汽车轮胎大幅度增加关税35%，称中国轮胎进口数量飙升让美国工人失业。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但是，2012年彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的研究发现，2011年，美国消费者因为轮胎价格上涨所承担的代价大约为11亿美元。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">这个研究认为，虽然向中国轮胎征收关税使美国制造业得以保住了1200个工作职位，但是美国消费者额外付出了这笔11亿美元的额外开支后，减少了在其他零售商品上的开销，“间接导致了零售业就业率的下降”。</p><figure style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: inherit; margin: 24px -24.6406px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #111111; clear: both;"><span style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; position: relative;"><img src="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/886D/production/_106952943_4eae4c0e-e1a6-4182-b3ef-29ab5719d310.jpg" datasrc="https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/886D/production/_106952943_4eae4c0e-e1a6-4182-b3ef-29ab5719d310.jpg" alt="美国总统奥巴马" width="976" height="549" data-highest-encountered-width="624" style="color: #bdbdbd; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; height: auto; max-width: 100%; user-select: none; width: 616.203px; transition: opacity 0.2s ease-in 0s; display: block;" /><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">图片版权</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.25px; line-height: 1.14286; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 8px 1px; vertical-align: baseline; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6); bottom: 0px; position: absolute; right: 0px;">GETTY IMAGES</span></span><figcaption style="border: 0px; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: visible;"><span style="border: 0px !important; color: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px); overflow: hidden; position: absolute !important; height: 1px !important; width: 1px !important;">Image caption</span><span style="border: 0px; color: #ececec; font-style: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: inherit; line-height: 1.33333; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block;">美国奥巴马总统任期，曾对中国生产的汽车轮胎实施35%的进口关税。</span></figcaption></figure><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">该研究还指出：“更进一步的损失是，中国采取报复行动，对进口的美国鸡肉也征收了反倾销关税，导致美国养鸡行业损失了大约10亿美元的销售额。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">用来证明增加关税有用的一个常用的例子，是美国总统罗纳德·里根1983年决定对日本生产的摩托车大幅度提高进口关税。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">此举被认为让困难重重的美国摩托车制造商哈利·戴维森（Harley Davidson）免去了来自国外的激烈竞争，里根总统功不可没。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">但有人认为，这跟里根总统增加进口日本摩托车的关税没有关系。哈利·戴维森公司能扭亏为盈得益于本身的努力，其中包括改造工厂生产线，研发性能更优良的发动机。这些才是让该公司走出困境的有效手段。</p><h2>美国关税能迫使中国达成协议吗？</h2><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">剑桥大学的克罗利博士说，美国总统特朗普新增的关税可能会让中国重回谈判桌，但是她并不认为中国就会因此作出重大的让步。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“的确，中国经济增长放缓问题比以前多，中国从美国的进口贸易远远超过向美国的出口贸易，所以中国在贸易战中的损失会大些。”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“但是他们并不想改变自己的法律，即便中国真愿意改变法律，中国有司法传统来执行吗？”</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">美国跨国律师行Cooley LLP的律师克里斯托弗·邦迪认为，特朗普威胁增加关税更多是为了扩大选民基础，制造头条新闻。</p><p style="border: 0px; color: #404040; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, STHeiti, 华文黑体, "Microsoft YaHei", 微软雅黑, SimSun, 宋体, "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.75; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: #ffffff;">“要让人们了解中美谈判中所涉及的原则问题，如国有企业的行为、保护知识产权、公平市场准入和保护工人以及环境等等非常困难，而主打关税就容易多了。”</p>